Economics
War Economy, War Society – How Strong Is Putin Really?
How far can Putin go in militarizing Russia? What are the weaknesses of his approach?
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Article
The Russian Economy and Sanctions Brief – August 2024
Vladimir Putin’s corridor of economic opportunities is narrowing
Article
Belousov’s Appointment Exposes a Structural Crisis in Putin’s MOD
Putin’s difficulties are plenty and mounting
Report
War Economy, War Society – How Strong Is Putin Really?
How far can Putin go in militarizing Russia? What are the weaknesses of his approach?
Report
EU Imports of Russian Gas
In 2023, the EU was the largest buyer of Russia’s pipeline gas, purchasing 36% of its exports, followed by Turkey (31%) and China (28%)
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Economics
The summer of 2024 has shown several important trends regarding the Russian economy and the progressing impact of Western sanctions:
- Visible signs of economic cooling are now officially recorded, the first post-sanctions bounce-back effect of 2022-2024 is over, and a viable model to ensure growth is lacking;
- The economy is overheating, near-full production capacity utilization and labor scarcity are reaching an all-time peak, and inflationary risks are increasing due to continued fiscal stimulus;
- The state’s financial reserves are depleting rapidly;
- The Russian Central Bank was not able to cool inflation within a year of raising interest rates and was forced to raise the key rate again, from 16% to 18%, on July 26th. Another rate hike, to 19% or even 20%, is likely to happen on September 13th;
- Higher interest rates emerge as a major factor, slowing down economic activity, contributing to a further increase in inflation by driving up costs, and inviting a potential banking crisis;
- Russia’s bond yields are skyrocketing, putting additional pressure on the federal budget in terms of the state’s debt-servicing costs;