Table 11
Scenario 1: Incremental Expansion
Triggers/disruptors
  • Putin’s continued aggression in Ukraine
  • Putin’s lack of reaction to Western pressure so far
  • Potential aggressive actions by Russia beyond Ukraine (against other countries in Europe or in Russia’s neighborhood)
  • Russia’s direct involvement in assisting aggressive acts of other dictatorships (Iran, China, North Korea)
Strategic implications
  • Russian economic and financial woes exacerbating
  • Putin facing lack of resources to continue the war in the foreseeable future (from months to a few years ahead)
LikelihoodHigh
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