Table 12
Scenario 2: Strategic Retrenchment
Triggers/disruptors
  • Public and political fatigue from Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions
  • Change of public opinion and even governments in Western democracies eroding the current political stance against Russian aggression
  • Economic downturn in Western democracies prompting a call for rapprochement with Russia
  • Lack of decisive progress on the battlefield in Ukraine, Ukraine moving closer to losing the war
Strategic implications
  • Space widens for Russia to sustain the current difficulties caused by sanctions
  • Prolonged war in Ukraine, increasing risks of Russia attacking other countries beyond Ukraine
LikelihoodModerate
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