Table 13
Scenario 3: Gradual Dismantling
Triggers/disruptors
  • Peace agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine
  • Political changes in Western democracies leading to decisive rethinking of the current sanctions policies
Strategic implications
  • Russia quickly overcoming most current difficulties, amassing sufficient resources for further military power projection to achieve its geopolitical goals
  • Russia inching closer to take control over Ukraine and possibly attacking more neighboring countries or even the EU member states
LikelihoodLow to moderate
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