Table 14
Scenario 4: Sanctions Erosion Through Nonenforcement
Triggers/disruptors
  • Lack of sufficient resources and political will to enforce the growing array of sanctions
  • Gradual withdrawal of the US from global sanctions regime with simultaneous lack of sufficient sanctions enforcement capacity with other Western democracies
  • Change of governments in Western democracies with more sanctions skeptics coming to power
  • Domestic political and economic problems in Western democracies prevailing in focus over sanctions enforcement
Strategic implications
  • Russia gaining the ability to seriously enhance its financial and military capabilities for continuing the war in Ukraine
  • Russia amassing sufficient resources for more military aggressions against European or other countries beyond Ukraine
LikelihoodModerate
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