Table 15
Recommendations for Scenario 1

Urgent priorities Longer-term priorities
Congress
  • Launch investigations into enforcement gaps and require quarterly reporting from OFAC and BIS on license issuance, enforcement actions, and industry lobbying activity
  • Review the impact of DOGE actions on sanctions enforcement capacity
  • Codify sanctions to the largest extent possible to prevent unjustified dismantling in the future
  • Assist the government to enhance OFAC and BIS staffing and available resources
  • Launch formal investigations into enforcement gaps and require quarterly reporting from OFAC and BIS on license issuance, enforcement actions, and industry lobbying activity
US government
  • Return to the practice of regularly updating Russia sanctions lists, including with secondary sanctions against third-country parties
  • Enhance OFAC and BIS staffing and available resources
  • Enforce stricter export controls
  • Work with the private sector to step up KYC and end-customer controls regarding military and sensitive technology
  • BIS should shift to impact-based targeting, prioritizing entities central to Russia’s military-industrial base and exercising rigorous export controls
  • Cut off all Russian banks from SWIFT
  • Sanction Russian fertilizers, chemical products, full list of nonferrous metals
  • Increase coordination with other Western democracies, consider recreating COCOM 2.0
  • Spearhead a reinvigorated transatlantic alignment strategy, particularly in coordinating enforcement timelines with the EU and Japan to prevent circumvention windows
  • Apply diplomatic pressure on countries (e.g., UAE, Central Asia, South Caucasus) identified in US export diversion data
  • Integrate secondary sanctions warnings into all bilateral trade dialogues
  • Consider lowering the oil price cap for Russia within the G7 framework
  • Assist the EU with implementation of the program of gradual phasing out of Russian natural gas and LNG
  • Build a specialized unit for Russia sanctions enforcement, including forensic analysis of financial flows and shadow fleet shipping activity, within OFAC
  • Adjust exports licensing process in high-risk export categories that should be subject to stricter export controls
NGOs, civil society groups
  • Step up investigative efforts to uncover sanction evasion schemes
  • Focus on watchdog work that monitors carveouts, lobby for tighter enforcement, and disseminate evidence of violations to Congress and investigative media
  • Increase public awareness of the actual achievements of sanctions policy in terms of enhancing the security of the US and the Western world
  • Increase public awareness of the risks posed by dismantling or the gradual erosion of sanctions
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