Table 17
Recommendations for Scenario 3

Urgent priorities Longer-term priorities
Congress
  • Assert the constitutional authority of Congress over foreign policy by requiring prior congressional notification and public justification before any rollback of major Russia sanctions, particularly in defense, finance, or energy
  • Bipartisan coalitions should preemptively outline which sanctions are nonnegotiable
Conduct public hearings to assess Russia’s compliance with international rules, preparing ground for a swift reaction in case Russia’s behavior once again crosses international redlines
US government
  • Produce public assessments of the impact of dismantling of each specific sanction
  • Tie any rollback to hard, verifiable benchmarks related to conflict de-escalation, war crimes accountability, and Russian disengagement from occupied territories
  • Publish declassification summaries to justify any delisting or license expansion
  • Condition any sanctions relief on reciprocal transparency measures from Russia, especially regarding troop withdrawals and access to international monitors. Any offer of relief should be made multilaterally to ensure allies remain aligned
  • Preclear any sanctions relief with the intelligence community to avoid opening trade channels that benefit dual-use industries or military end-users
Prepare set of specific indicators to identify Russia’s noncompliance with international rules requiring swift restoration of sanctions policy
NGOs, civil society groups
  • Increase public awareness of the actual achievements of sanctions policy in terms of enhancing the security of the US and the Western world
  • Increase public awareness of the risks posed by dismantling or the gradual erosion of sanctions
  • Raise red flags if sanctions are lifted without accountability benchmarks
  • Prepare alternative road maps showing how targeted relief (e.g., food and medicine) can be used without weakening pressure on the war machine
Prepare expertise supporting future decisive turnaround in lax sanctions policy should Russia commit more acts of aggression and lawless behavior, being stimulated by easing of sanctions and their enforcement
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