General overview of the situation in 15 Moscow electoral districts ahead of the elections to the State Duma

e 2021 elections to the State Duma will be held according to a mixed system. 225 deputies will be elected from party lists, and 225 will be elected in the districts

The 2021 elections to the State Duma will be held according to a mixed system. 225 deputies will be elected from party lists, and 225 will be elected in the districts. The 2016 elections occurred under a similar system when candidates from the United Russia party, with strong administrative support, won 98.5% of the districts (203 mandates were received in 206 constituencies where United Russia members participated). In 2016, United Russia representatives won 100% of the mandates (13 out of 13) in Moscow.

The government seeks to hold controlled elections. In these conditions, the chances of representatives of the systemic opposition (the Communist Party of Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Just Russia (Fair Russia), and Yabloko) are minimized, and non-systemic opposition isn’t allowed to participate in the elections—they are denied registration. Nevertheless, the Smart Voting (SV) strategy proposed by Alexei Navalny[1] turned out to be very effective. Its strategy is to encourage Navalny’s supporters to vote for the main rivals of the government, concentrating votes on one candidate. In the context of one-round el­ections where the ruling party, United Russia, has a rating of less than 50%,[2] this strategy can lead to success.

During the regional elections between 2018-2020, many United Russia candidates were not elected to various posts. As a rule, Smart Voting recommends supporting representatives of the systemic opposition. In 2021, SV will be tested for the first time in federal elections, but its influence may be insignificant due to political repressions and the departure of a number of Navalny’s supporters abroad. It is also likely that any resources associated with Navalny will be blocked. At the same time, SV supports candidates even against their will. This was the case in the 2019 Moscow City Duma elections, and in 2021, Yabloko founder Grigory Yavlinsky urged Navalny’s supporters not to vote for his party.[3]

United Russia has nominated candidates in 11 districts who will be the absolute favorites in the elections. The remaining four districts are expected to be distributed as follows:

  • Leningradskiy election district (No. 198): victory is expected for the representative of Just Russia, Galina Khovanskaya;
  • In the Medvedkovskiy election district (No. 200) and the Preobrazhenskiy election district (No. 205), three candidates are supposed to fight for the mandate: a the CPRF candidate, a Yabloko candidate, and a self-nominated candidate;
  • Central election district (No. 208): United Russia at the last moment did not nominate a candidate. This is the most oppositional Moscow district with many recognizable people running for it. A difficult struggle between four or five candidates is expected. At the same time, the self-nominated candidate, Oleg Leonov, has the support of the administration.

Electoral districts 196-198, 200, 205, 208, and 210 are the most interesting due to the good ratings of opposition, and the lack of United Russia or strong alternative. All other electoral districts are expected to be won by administrative candidates.[4]

Electoral District 196 – Babushkinskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Bazhenov Timofey TimofeyevichUnited Russia25.01.1976TV channel, NTVMoscowMoscow
Burkova Zinaida IvanovnaIndependent26.01.1957EmergencyKazSSRMoscow
Vikhareva Elvira VladimirovnaParty of Growth8.06.1990BusinessmanIrkutskMoscow
Ivanova Elena IvanovnaCivic Platform16.04.1970Civil PlatformMoscow OblastMoscow Oblast
Kramorova Larisa NikolaevnaIndependent06.06.1973HomemakerKemerovo OblastMoscow
Kryukov Alexey SergeevichLDPR9.06.1987KAS GroupMoscowMoscow
Malinkovich Sergey AlexandrovichCommunists of Russia27.05.1975Communists of RussiaLeningradSt. Petersburg
Mironova Viktoria AlexeandrovnaRussian Party of Freedom and Justice (RPSS)1.08.1981Newspaper, Rodnaya Losinka  MoscowMoscow
Rashkin Valeriy FedorovichCPRF14.03.1955State Duma deputyKaliningrad Oblast  Saratov
Rvachev Alexey SergeevichNew People21.01.1992Education programs support company, KapitanyVoronezhVoronezh
Strelnikova Elena NikolaevnaGreen Alternative28.07.1962BusinesswomanMoscowMoscow
Tarasov Anton Alexandrovich  Russian Ecological Party (The  Greens)14.11.1984BusinessmanMoscowMoscow
Tikhomolov Vladimir FedorovichIndependent14.06.1949RetiredUzbekSSRMoscow
Fedorov Georgiy VladimirovichJust Russia7.05.1973National regional socio-economic development fund; member of the Public CouncilMoscowMoscow
Yankov Kirill VadimovichYabloko17.12.1962Russian Academy of SciencesRostov-on-DonMoscow Oblast

Districts: Bogorodskoe, Sokolniki, Alexeevskiy, Babushkinskiy, Butyrskiy, Losinoostrovskiy, Marfino, Maryina Roscha, Ostankinskiy, Rostokino, Sviblovo, Yaroslavskiy

Timofey Bazhenov, United Russia, is an administrative candidate. He has administrative support and some recognition. Bazhenov is a TV presenter who has hosted a number of television programs since the 1990s. In 2016, he announced his desire to participate in the elections to the State Duma from the Chelyabinsk Oblast, but later withdrew his candidacy. He has no other campaigning experience, and his social media profiles, except for Instagram, have not been actively used since 2018. His Instagram account has 2.6 million subscribers, and he has Facebook and VKontakte accounts, though previously they weren’t publicly active. There is a fairly expensive website (https://bazhenovteam.ru/), which provides an overview of the initiatives of “Bazhenov’s team.” Bazhenov’s platform focuses on local issues: improvement projects and working with small requests. A standard methodology for an administrative candidate is used: previously agreed upon improvement projects are implemented for a quick response to requests from residents. The collection of signatures for regional initiatives is actively used.

Valeriy Rashkin, Communist Party of the Russian Federation, is Bazhenov’s main competitor and an acting deputy of the State Duma. A native of the Saratov region, Rashkin has a standard biography for a communist candidate: works in production, and since 1988, he has worked for the Communist Party of the Soviet Union/Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Rashkin supported Navalny,[5] is known to be an active participant in the protests, and is considered to be internal opposition to the federal leaders of the CPRF. He participated in elections to the State Duma six times and was elected as a deputy five times. However, he won in the district only once—in 1999 in the Saratov region—all other successful cases were the election from the list. As in 2016, Rashkin is in a passing place in the list of the CPRF, so  it is likely that he will not conduct an active campaign in the district.

Kirill Yankov, Yabloko, is an active member of the party since the 1990s. Previously, Yankov did not work in this district and worked in the Moscow region. His success depends on the degree of his activity. At the moment, he looks like a formal “office” candidate.

Elvira Vikhareva, Party of Growth, will most likely try to appeal to liberal voters, though she has practically no recognition. She previously worked with Gudkov.[6] In 2017, she unsuccessfully participated in the elections of municipal deputies in the Altufievskiy district. She has a YouTube channel with 18 thousand subscribers but most likely does not have the resources to conduct an active campaign. She will likely spoil Yankov’s chances.

Georgiy Fedorov, Just Russia, has been involved in politics since 2000. His biggest success was winning 14% in the elections to the Moscow City Duma in 2019. He has a pre-election website, and he is active on social networks. Fedorov leads an active campaign and goes to competitors’ meetings. He does not support Putin and claims to be a socialist. Fedorov has the potential to be ruin Rashkin’s chances.

Alexey Kryukov, Liberal Democratic Party, is a young candidate (34 years old). He is the LDPR coordinator for the Bibirevo district, though he is practically unknown in the district. Kryukov has participated in seven elections at various levels,  losing every time. His best result was 10% of the Moscow City Duma elections in 2019.

Sergey Malinkovich of Communists of Russia and Anton Tarasov of The Greens will focus their campaigns on criticizing the CPRF and Rashkin. Both are former members of the CPRF, and their task is to take votes from Rashkin. Sergey Malinkovich took part in 48 (!) elections at various levels and was twice elected as a municipal deputy in St. Petersburg. Anton Tarasov was a municipal deputy in the Aeroport district. After leaving the CPRF, he has acted as a spoiler for candidates from this party several times.

Alexey Rvachev, New People, is unknown and inactive. His situation is similar to that of Elena Ivanova of Civic Platform and Elena Strelnikova of Green Alternative.

Victoria Mironova, RPSS, is a municipal deputy of the Losinoostrovskiy district. She is not well-recognized but may receive a small number of votes of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

Independent candidate Vladimir Tikhomolov is not campaigning and is unlikely to be able to collect signatures. Registration is possible only with administrative support.

Zinaida Burkova is a «spare» administrative candidate who is unlikely to receive registration in the elections.

Prediction: the victory of Timofey Bazhenov, with Veleriy Rashkin in second place as a result of losing a small number of the votes due to spoilers. Much will depend on the degree of Rashkin’s activity and the performance of the Smart Voting strategy. The situation is difficult for the opposition.

Electoral District 197 – Kuntsevskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Balmont Boris AlexandrovichNew people19.08.1975BusinessmanMoscowMoscow
Glek Igor VladimirovichThe Greens7.11.1961Vice-president of the Moscow chess Federation, district deputy of Troparevo-Nikulino districtMoscowMoscow
Goncharov Kirill AlexeevichYabloko29.02.1992YablokoMoscowMoscow
Gorshkova Vladislava GennadievnaGreen Alternative8.01.1981Unemployed, Krylatskoe district deputyMoscowMoscow
Lobanov Mikhail SergeevichCPRF24.02.1984Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityArkhangelskMoscow
Menshikov Mikhail VasilievichParty of Growth26.10.1958Retired, Dorogomilovo district deputyMoscowMoscow
Mitina Daria AlexandrovnaCommunists of Russia14.08.1973Innovations development instituteMoscowMoscow
Popov Evgeniy GeorgievichUnited Russia11.09.1978TV channel, Rossiya  VladivostokMoscow
Potapenko Dmitriy ValerievichRPSS30.03.1970EN+ GroupMoscowMoscow
Ramenskiy Pavel OlegovichLDPR18.05.1988Medical center № 2MoscowMoscow
Romanov Alexandr VasilievichIndependent18.03.1956UnemployedMoscowMoscow
Sobolev Alexey AnatolievichRodina30.10.1977BusinessmanMoscowMoscow
Tarnavskiy Alexandr GeorgievichJust Russia20.04.1960Charity foundation, Care and MercyUkrSSRMoscow
Shaaban Shaaban Khafed Ahmed AliIndependent15.03.1952UnemployedJordanMoscow

Districts: Dorogomilovo, Krylatskoe, Kuntsevo, Mozhayskiy, Prospekt Vernadskogo, Ramenki, Filevskiy park, Fili-Davydkovo

Evgeniy Popov, United Russia, is an administrative candidate. Popov is a well-known TV presenter who conducts propaganda programs. His most popular TV program is the talk show, «60 Minutes» with his wife Svetlana Skabeeva. Despite not having participated in an election before, he is recognizable among the pro-government electorate, and he has a significant number of votes from the elderly electorate. According to social media, he is conducting an active election campaign, but he does not have widespread reach on the Internet. He created his own volunteer organization for the elections, which consists of United Russia members and paid activists. Popov was nominated in a difficult district for the authorities and where the percentage of votes for the opposition is high. At the same time, it is a huge irritant for the opponents of the current government. This is evidenced by a telephone survey of the Gosdumetr project, which found that out of the 25% of voters who do know Popov, only 31% are ready to vote for him.[7]

Mikhail Lobanov, CPRF, is an associate professor of mechanics and mathematics at Lomonosov Moscow State University. He’s an active oppositionist. Lobanov has participated in many protests and is one of the founders of the Initiative Group of Moscow State University,[8] which is quite famous among activists. In general, he is not known outside of the narrow activist circle. Support for Lobanov from the CPRF is expected to be minimal, because Lobanov is not a member of CPRF and supports Alexei Navalny. He does not have serious resources, but it is possible that he will receive votes as a result of Smart Voting. If that is the case, he will be able to unite the supporters of the Communist Party and the liberal opposition. Lobanov has no personal recognition; according to Gosdumetr, only 7% of voters know him and only 25% of them are ready to vote for him. At the start of the campaign, his rating corresponded to the level of support for the Communist Party.

Igor Glek, The Greens, is a well-known chess player and municipal deputy of the Troparevo-Nikulino Moscow district. He has some recognition and is respected in his profession. He received more than 1,500 votes in the 2017 elections. In 2019, he ran on behalf of Just Russia for deputy of the Moscow City Duma in 38th district. He received second place after United Russia, losing by 6,500 votes. He got first place in the districts of Prospect Vernadskiy and Troparevo-Nikulino—he had an almost three-fold advantage over United Russia—and the other three districts he lost in are not included in the current district. To a large extent, his success was  the result of Smart voting support, for which he will compete again.

Another contender for the support of Smart Voting is Kirill Goncharov of Yabloko, the deputy chairman of the Moscow branch of the party and member of the Bureau. In 2019, he was not permitted to participate in the elections to the Moscow City Duma. He has some recognition and is very active. There are real activists who are ready to help his campaign. He has participated in elections of various levels four times, was not registered twice, and lost twice. His main success was receiving 24% of the vote in the Moscow City Duma elections in 2014. According to Gosdumetr, he is the most recognizable candidate from the opposition—10% of voters know about him, and  27% of them are ready to support him.

Dmitriy Potapenko, RPSS, is a well-known Russian entrepreneur and presenter on the radio show, “Echo of Moscow.” He often criticizes the authorities’ business policy. Potapenko is expected to receive many of the opposition votes of Lobanov, Glek, and Goncharov.

Pavel Ramenskiy, Liberal Democratic Party, is unknown and was not previously seen in the political sphere. He is unlikely to be actively campaigning. He is expected to receive the votes of the LDPR, though its rating in Moscow is insignificant. Ramenskiy’s recognition according to Gosdumetr is minimal— he is known by 3% of voters, of whom only 6% support him, a critically small figure characteristic of most candidates from the LDPR. Most likely, the party’s rating will play a key role.

Boris Balmont, New People, is unknown. Unlike Ramensky, his party does not have a noticeable rating. He is engaged in local activities and is trying to appeal to young voters.

Mikhail Menshikov of the Party of Growth and Vladislav Gorshkov of Green Alternative are municipal deputies. They do not possess great resources or recognition. Most likely, they will work to receive a small share of the votes from their districts, Dorogomilovo and Krylatskiy.

Alexandr Tarnavskiy, Just Russia, is a prominent Moscow lawyer and a regular elections participant. From 2001-2005, he was a deputy of the Moscow City Duma. He has a low level of recognition. He has been a member of Just Russia since its inception. According to Gosdumetr, 7% of voters know Tarnavskiy, and 8% of them are ready to support him.

Alexey Sobolev, Rodina, is practically invisible. According to his social media profiles, he is not running them. He is known by 5% of voters according to Gosdumetr polls, and  23% of them will vote for him.

Independent candidates Shaaban Shaaban and Alexandr Romanov do not have the resources to collect signatures or register.

Daria Mitina, Communists of Russia, is a former State Duma deputy from the CPRF. After leaving the party, she has mainly engaged in criticism of former party members. She is a spoiler for Mikhail Lobanov—the main goal of her campaign is to take away votes from him.

Prediction: Evgeniy Popov of United Russia will win. The opposition will succeed in imposing a struggle in the district if Smart Voting manages to consolidate votes for one candidate (Lobanov, Glek, Goncharov, or Potapenko). Because of the intense competition among the opposition in this district, it will be extremely difficult to do this. Popov’s strongest competitor is Lobanov, given the rating of the Communist Party.

Electoral District 198 – Leningradskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Andrianova Zoya AlexeevnaGreens19.03.1974Businesswoman, Begovoy district deputyMoscowMoscow
Arkhangelskiy Vyacheslav VladimirovichIndependent20.05.1969Inkom Severo-ZapadMoscowMoscow
Aspektnaya Larisa GennadievnaIndependent09.04.1964BusinesswomanNovosibirsk OblastMoscow
Balabutkin Alexey AlexeyevichCommunists of Russia31.07.1979Grushenskaya AcademiaMoscowMoscow
Brukhanova Anastasia AndreevnaIndependent, Schukino district deputy01.09.1993Urban Projects Foundation of Maxim Katz and Ilia VarlamovMoscowMoscow
Vlasov Vasiliy MaximovichLDPR27.06.1995State Duma deputyMoscowNovgorodOblast
Goluenko Alisa VladimirovnaGreen Alternative30.10.1995Student, Khoroshevskiy district deputyMoscowMoscow
Zvyagintsev Petr SemenovichCPRF18.01.1948Economics Institute of the Russian Academy of SciencesKursk OblastMoscow
Ivanov Maxim SergeevichROS7.08.1975Education center, GridinMoscowMoscow
Kataev Viktor FilippovichRPSS7.05.1989RPSS, Molzhaninovskiy district deputyKazSSRMoscow
Litvinovich Marina AlexeyevnaYabloko19.09.1974Newspaper Nash SeverMoscowMoscow
Melnikov Alexey VladimirovichIndependent06.08.1991BusinessmanRostov OblastMoscow
Tarbaev Sangadzhi AndreevichNew People15.04.1982TV union, AMiKKalmykia ASSRMoscow
Khovanskaya Galina PetrovnaJust Russia23.08.1943State Duma deputyMoscowMoscow

Districts: Aeroport, Begovoy, Beskudnikovskiy, Vostochnoe Degunino, Dmitrovskiy, Zapadnoe Degunino, Koptevo, Savelovskiy, Sokol, Timiryazevskiy, Khoroshevskiy

Galina Khovanskaya, Just Russia, is an administrative, pro-government candidate. Traditionally, United Russia does not nominate candidates in two or three districts in order to give the systemic opposition an opportunity to get into the Duma without defeating United Russia, itself. Khovanskaya is a current deputy of the State Duma. In 1989, she was a member of Democratic Choice (Boris Yeltsin’s movement), then she was a member of Yabloko. From 1993-2003, she was a deputy of the Moscow City Duma, since 2003, a deputy of the State Duma. In 2007, she left Yabloko and later became a member of Just Russia.[9] She deals with housing and communal services problems, and votes the same way on most key issues as United Russia. In 2016, she was elected in 198th Electoral District with 31% of the vote, while opposition leader Yulia Galyamina got second place. Khovanskaya is highly recognizable. According to a telephone survey by Gosdumetr, 57% of voters know her, about 60% of whom are ready to vote for her.

Marina Litvinovich, Yabloko is one of Khovanskaya’s two main competitors. She is a well-known political strategist and journalist and has great support from opposition activists. Previously, she worked with Khakamada and helped Other Russia, Civic Platform, and Ksenia Sobchak. Litvinovich has never run for deputy. An important factor in her election is the support of Yulia Galyamina who previously gained 14% in this district. It is likely that she (not Anastasia Brukhanova) will receive the support of Alexei Navalny’s Smart Voting since members of Navalny’s team do not support the representatives of Katz team. Despite being less active than Brukhanova, Litvinovich is the second most popular candidate after Khovanskaya at the start of the campaign. According to a telephone survey by Gosdumetr, Litvinovich is known to 17% of residents, 63% of whom are ready to support her.

Independent candidate Anastasia Brukhanova is another notable candidate who may gain a significant percentage of the vote. In order to register for an election, it is necessary to collect a certain number of signatures; without enough signatures,  it is possible to be refused registration. However, from the point of view of the authorities, her participation in the elections together with Litvinovich is preferable, since both will claim the votes of those with liberal values. Brukhanova is a municipal deputy of the Shchukino district, and a representative of the Urban Projects Foundation by Maxim Katz and Ilya Varlamov. Her campaign is accompanied by successful fundraising and very high levels of activity. Despite this, the recognition of Brukhanova is less than that of Litvinovich. According to Gosdumetr, Brukhanova is known only to 15% of voters, 48% of whom are ready to support her. Aa significant part of the remaining 52% are expected to vote for Litvinovich.

Petr Zvyagintsev, CPRF, is active at the local level but is unknown to the general public. Previously, he was a municipal deputy in Vostochnoe Degunino. In 2019, he ran in the district for deputy of the Moscow City Duma and was supported by Smart Voting. He lost by only 139 votes. He does not have large resource and  is not conducting an active campaign. The brand of the Communist Party will allow him to collect a significant number of votes from its supporters, but Alexey Balabutkin, the representative of the spoiler party, Communists of Russia, will take some of them. Despite the fact that Zvyagintsev has been working in the district for more than 30 years, only 11% of voters know him according to Gosdemetr, and only 49% of them are ready to support him.

Alexey Balabutkin, Communists of Russia, is a spoiler for Zvyagintsev of the CPRF. Balabutkin’s goal is to confuse voters who wants to support a representative of the CPRF. Previously, Balabutkin was a member of CPRF, but has participated in a number of elections on behalf of the Communists of Russia. He never received more than 4% of the vote. He is practically unknown, and only the electorate of CPRF knows him, which sharply condemns the spoilers of the candidates from the Communists of Russia. This is the reason for the results of the polls by Gosdumetr, which found that his recognition by voters is 4%, of which only 22% are ready to vote for him.

Vasiliy Vlasov, LDPR, is the youngest active deputy of the State Duma. He is known for eccentric words and support of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. In 2017, he ran for deputies in this district, got 3rd place (after Khovanskaya and Galyamina), and received 11% of the votes. He has no motivation to actively participate in the 2021 campaign, since he is in one of the leading places in the general part of the LDPR list. Despite mentions in the media, according to Gosdumetr, only 6% of voters know him, of whom a critically small proportion of people (14%) are ready to support him.

Maxim Ivanov, the Russian National Union (ROS), has not been seen in any social and political activities. He did not appear in the polls of Gosdumetr.

Viktor Kataev, RPSS, is a municipal deputy in the Molzhaninovskiy district, where the opposition has a majority. He was closely associated with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has some recognition in this area. However, it should be taken into account that Molzhaninovskiy is the smallest district in Moscow in terms of population. He cannot count on a significant number of votes. According to «Gosdumetr», 3% of voters know him, of whom 18% will support him.

Sangadzhi Tarbaev, New People, is a showman. Most likely, he will take over a small number of the youth electorate votes. There is no great recognition, but there is an active campaign in social networks.

Alisa Goluenko, Green Alternative, is an opposition municipal deputy of the Khoroshevskiy district. She was active in 2017 and may campaign organizing meetings with voters. Goluenko does not have large resources. She is a functionary of the «Green Alternative», previously ran for «Yabloko» and «Just Russia». The degree of publicity according to «Gosdumetr» is within the statistical error: 3% know her, 11% of them are ready to vote (the lowest result in the district).

Zoya Andrianova, The Greens, is a deputy of the Begovoy district from Yabloko. She does not have many resources and is not well-known to voters. 4% know her, 19% of whom will support her in the elections.

Independent candidates Alexey Melnikov, Alexandr Arkhangelskiy, and Larisa Aspektnaya are little known, despite, for example, Melnikov’s statements about the active collection of signatures. They may be backup administrative candidates, but most likely will not be registered. Arkhangelskiy is associated with United Russia, and Melnikov is supported by the Moscow Aviation Institute and maintains a video blog.

Prediction: the victory of Galina Khovanskaya with a result of 30-40%. It is possible that her two main rivals, Brukhanova and Litvinovich, will together gain a comparable number of votes or even be able to get ahead of her together. However, the opposition’s victory is only possible if resources are combined, which is extremely unlikely.

Electoral District 200 – Medvedkovskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Anisimkova Polina NikolaevnaThe Greens6.05.2000Proekt-NMoscowMoscow
Arbuzov Andrey AlexandrovichCivil Platform11.12.1966RetiredMoscow OblastMoscow Oblast
Babushkin Andrey VladimirovichYabloko28.01.1964Civil Rights Committee, Otradnoe district deputyMoscow OblastMoscow
Velmakin Mikhail VadimovichGreen Alternative26.02.1982Laboratory of Complex Sociologic ResearchMoscowMoscow
Zagrebnoy Yuri LeontievichJust Russia23.02.1959Editor of “Mossovet” mediaVolgograd OblastMoscow
Zapotylok Evgeniy VasilievichNew People11.05.1983Formula AdvertMoscowMoscow
Orlov Mikhail ViktorovichCommunists of Russia16.05.1994Master MediaMoscowMoscow
Parfenov Denis AndreevichCPRF22.09.1987State Duma deputyMoscowMoscow
Pevtsov Dmitriy AnatolievichIndependent08.07.1963Theatre “Lenkom of Mark Zakharov”MoscowMoscow
Stepkin Evgeniy ValerievichLDPR4.08.1989UnemployedBelgorod OblastMoscow

Districts: Altufievskiy, Bibirevo, Lianosovo, Otradnoe, Severnoe Medvedkovo, Severniy, Yuzhnoe Medvedkovo

This district has a small number of candidates. There is no candidate from United Russia.

Independent candidate Dmitry Pevtsov is one of the most famous candidates in Moscow. He has administrative support and is a supporter of the current government. He directly calls himself a “Putin fan.” Pevtsov is a very famous actor and is especially well-known to people over 30 years old. He collected signatures for registration, and an active campaign is underway with the full support of local authorities. His status as a self-nominated candidate is due to the fact that the representative of United Russia had not run for office earlier in the district. According to Gosdumetr, he is known by 42% of voters, 26% of whom are ready to vote for him.

Denis Parfenov, CPRF, is a current deputy of the State Duma, elected in this district. In 2016, he received the lowest share of votes among all the winners—less than 20%. Key advantages for Parfenov are the absence of administrative pressure in the district and the presence of a large voter base. Parfenov will conduct an active campaign with good chances of success. According to Gosdumetr, 23% of voters know him and 31% of them will support him. Support from Smart Voting will significantly increase his chances of success.

Andrey Babushkin, Yabloko, is a current municipal deputy from the Otradnoye district and constantly participates in elections at various levels in this district. He was only elected as a municipal deputy and enjoys confidence among local activists, but he is not so well-known at the city level. As a member of Yabloko, Babushkin is an opponent of any alliances with other organizations. He may be able to get part of the protest electorate, but it is likely he will yield to Denis Parfenov.

Yuri Zagrebnoy, Just Russia, is a journalist and was a deputy of the Moscow City Duma in the 90s. Later, he took part in municipal and city elections, though he never won. Zagrebnov has connections with the Moscow Mayor’s office and is not an oppositionist. Despite his great experience, he is almost unknown to voters in the district. According to Gosdumetr, 3% of voters are familiar with Zagrebnov, but just a quarter of them are ready to vote for him.

Evgeniy Stepkin, LDPR. is a little-known candidate. The big problem for Stepkin will be his status as unemployed in the bulletin. Previously, he ran for the Moscow City Duma where he received 6% of votes in the district. Most likely, his rating in a passive campaign will be lower than that of LDPR, but it should be kept in mind that in 2016, the representative of LDPR managed to take second place in the district—the best result for LDPR in its history. Stepkin is recognizable for only 2% of voters, 10% of whom will vote for him.

Mikhail Velmakin, Green Alternative, is an experienced municipal opposition politician who has been a deputy in the Otradnoye district several times. He does not have the necessary resources for victory and is familiar only to a group of activists of the district.

Evgeniy Zapotylok, New People, is a candidate who will try to receive a small number of votes from young voters. He is focusing his resources on running an online campaign. The voters do not know him, and his rating is minimal.

Mikhail Orlov, Communists of Russia, is a spoiler candidate for Denis Parfenov and is capable of taking 2-4% of the vote. He constantly participates in campaigns at various levels. By the age of 27, he had run more than 20 times, never winning. Orlov will not conduct an active campaign and does not live in Moscow.

Polina Anisimkova, The Greens, is 21 years old and one of the youngest participants in the elections.  This allows her to count on additional votes of youth voters, which will be determined with the choice at the polling station. She isn’t conducting a campaign and has no history of social and political activity.

Andrey Arbuzov, Civic Platform, does not have any established rating. The voters do not know him, and he is not campaigning.

Prediction: the main struggle will unfold between Pevtsov, Parfeonov and Babushkin. Parfenov has a chance only if he runs an active campaign that activates his entire electoral base and recevies  support from Smart Voting. Pevtsov’s victory, however, looks a little more likely. Babushkin can affect Parfenov’s chances negatively by taking a significant part of the protest votes.

Electoral District 205 – Preobrazhenskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Besdenezhnykh Ksenia AlexeevnaIndependent09.07.1997Yam! Restaurants RussiaPermMoscow
Vasserman Anatoliy AlexandrovichIndependent09.12.1952BusinessmanUkrSSRMoscow
Gladkova Yulia GenrikhovnaRPSS26.05.1966RPSSUfaMoscow Oblast
Demchenko Vyacheslav OlegovichNew People16.03.1986Federal Corporation of Business SupportLipetskMoscow
Dorman Daria IgorevnaIndependent01.01.1990UnemployedMoscow OblastMoscow
Zagordan Nadezhda LeonidovnaGreen Alternative24.03.1984Research scientific center, Informatics and Management, Izmaylovo district deputyMoscowMoscow
Isaev Evgeniy NikolaevichIndependent02.06.1983UnemployedSverdlovsk OblastSverdlovsk Oblast
Ischenko Nikita SergeevichCivil Platform26.02.1989“Arkuda”KazSSRMoscow Oblast
Koryagina Natalia GrogorievnaParty of Growth11.09.1970BusinessmanKazSSRMoscow
Kostycheva Marina AlexandrovnaRodina9.12.1989Government of Voronezh OblastGermanyMoscow
Medvedev Anton VladimirovichLDPR4.11.1985Unemployed, Izmaylovo district deputyMoscowMoscow
Obukhov Sergey PavlovichCPRF5.10.1958State Duma officeUkrSSRMoscow
Popova Alena VladimirovnaYabloko15.02.1983Civil CorpusSverdlovsk OblastMoscow
Sidorov Yaroslav SeverovichCommunists of Russia29.09.1968Communists of RussiaMoscowMoscow

Districts: Vostochnoe Izmaylovo, Golyanovo, Ivanovskoe, Izmaylovo, Metrogorodok, Vostochniy, Preobrazhenskoe, Severnoe Izmaylovo, Sokolinaya gora

There is no candidate from United Russia.

Independent candidate Anatoliy Vasserman is in this case a candidate from the government. He is known as an active participant in intellectual TV games, mainly, Svoya Igra. Vasserman acts as a supporter of the Soviet model of state development, supports Stalin,[10] and speaks out against the opposition. He represents the left-wing electorate, is loyal to the current government, and is well-known among voters. According to Gosdumetr, 66% of voters know him, and 49% of them are ready to support him. He has experience participating in elections and ran for Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) in 1994, receiving 2nd place in the district.

Alena Popova, Yabloko, is well-known among activists as  an active participant in protests, though she has a controversial reputation. Popova supports the law against domestic violence and works to develop her media presence. The voters know her poorly: according to Gosdumetr, 5% of voters know her, 60% of whom are ready to support her. With an active campaign, she could garner a lot of votes.

Anton Medvedev, LDPR , is one of the few municipal deputies in Moscow from his party and is unemployed. LDPR has a low rating. Despite this, he is well-recognized in Izmaylovo. Medvedev, according to Gosdumetr, is known by 18% of voters (second highest result after United Russia), 40% of whom are ready to support him.

Sergey Obukhov, CPRF, is an employee of the State Duma and was previously a deputy. He is the political strategist who largely determines the party’s citywide campaign. He has never won in the district and will not conduct an active campaign. Obukhov, according to Gosdumetr, is known by 13% of voters, 64% of whom support him. He risks not even getting into the top three.

Nadezhda Zagordan, Green Alternative, is a municipal deputy of the Izmaylovo district. She is active at the local level, especially in the field of improvement. She is attempting to form a team for municipal elections in 2022. She likely uses the Duma elections to expand her voter base for the future. 4% of voters know her, and 41%  of them are ready to vote for her.

Yaroslav Sidorov, Communists of Russia, is the spoiler candidate for Sergey Obukhov. He is actively participating in elections at all levels in different regions. Over the past 16 years, he has taken part in 32 campaigns, though he has never won. He will not campaign. Voters often confuse him with the Communist Party candidate. According to Gosdumetr, 4% of voters know him, and 57% of them are ready to support him.

Yulia Gladkova, RPSS, is a former representative of CPRF. In 2019, she received 36% of the vote in the elections to the Moscow City Duma and came in second place. She is actively working and will probably count on the votes of CPRF. In fact, the success of 2019 is not due to personal recognition, but to the rating of CPRF and the support of Smart Voting. According to Gosdumetr, only 4% of voters know Gladkova, and 29% of them are ready to support her.

Vyacheslav Demchenko, New People, has not previously been involved in social and political activities. He is associated with the pro-Putin movement, “ONF”. According to Gosdumetr, 3% of voters know him, 11% of whom are ready to vote for him.

Nikita Ischenko, Civic Platform, is unknown and inactive. According to Gosdumetr, 4% of voters know him, 48% of whom are ready to support him.

Natalia Koryagina, Party of Growth, is unknown and inactive. According to Gosdumetr, 3% of voters are familiar with her, 33% of whom are ready to support her.

Marina Kostycheva, Rodina, is an employee of the State Duma and the government of the Voronezh Oblast. She is a candidate without any recognition or activity. 3% of voters know her, 28% of whom support her.

Independent candidates Ksenia Bezdenezhnykh, Daria Dorman, and Evgeniy Isaev do not have the resources to collect signatures and will not be registered. Isaev is a member of United Russia who lost the primaries.

Prediction: Vasserman’s unconditional victory

Electoral District 208 – Tsentralniy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Balyaeva Zukhra RinatovnaIndependent2.06.1979Social worker, district deputy in MordoviaBashkiriaMoscow
Vinnitskaya Tatiana GennadievnaNew People13.01.1977Viva Russia!NovgorodMoscow
Dzhagaev Iosif RuslanovichIndependent22.09.1989Civil Initiative partyVladikavkazhomeless
Zakharov Dmitriy AlexandrovichCommunists of Russia2.07.1985UnemployedMoscowMoscow
Koshlakov-Krestovskiy Dmitriy VladimirovichLDPR24.08.1972World Civilizations InstituteMoscowMoscow
Leonov Oleg YurievichIndependent10.09.1970Missing People Search CentreMoscowMoscow
Mitrokhin Sergey SergeyevichYabloko20.05.1963Yabloko, Moscow City Duma deputyMoscowMoscow
Ostanina Nina AlexandrovnaCPRF26.12.1955State Duma officeAltay KraiMoscow
Kharaidze Ketevan GuramovnaGreen Alternative9.04.1958Tverskoy district deputyGeorgian SSRMoscow
Shevchenko Maxim LeonardovichRPSS22.02.1966Vladimirskaya Oblast Duma deputyMoscowMoscow
Shirokov Andrey VyacheslavovichParty of Pensioners3.01.1958RPSSMoscowMoscow
Yushin Anatoliy PavlovichCivil platform11.11.1974Lawyer, Presnenskiy district deputy MoscowMoscow
Yakubovich Yakov BorisovichParty of Growth4.05.1981Head of Tverskoy districtBryansk OblastMoscow
Yandiev Magomet IsaevichJust Russia29.07.1968Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityGrozniyMoscow

Districts: Arbat, Basmanniy, Zamoskvorechie, Krasnoselskiy, Meschanskiy, Presnenskiy, Taganskiy, Tverskoy, Khamovniki, Yakimanka, Lefortovo

There is no United Russia candidate in the district. It was supposed to be Karen Aperyan, but he did not submit the documents to the election commission. This is probably related to the low level of support for the ruling party in this district. In this regard, independent candidate Oleg Leonov was nominated by the authorities, but he is not officially associated with United Russia.

Independent candidate Oleg Leonov is a hidden candidate from the government who receives a lot of administrative support. He is the coordinator of Liza Alert, which searches for missing people. The organization is popular among activists, including opposition representatives. Leonov previously stated that he did not support Putin, but later participated in meetings with him.[11] Leonov is loyal to the authorities, and budget organizations helped him collect signatures. He will probably try to get opposition votes through his active campaign.

Sergey Mitrokhin, Yabloko, is a Moscow City Duma deputy and former head of the party’s Moscow branch. Mitrokhin actively participates in meetings with voters. He was elected as a deputy of the Moscow City Duma in 2019 with the support of Smart Voting. Previously, his participation in the elections in the districts in Moscow has been unsuccessful. There is a possibility that the ruling party will support Mitrokhin. The current deputy from United Russia, Nikolay Gonchar, has publicly stated that his party can support Mitrokhin.[12] Perhaps, this is done to discredit him. At the same time, Mitrokhin can also expect to receive support from Navalny’s Smart Voting.

Nina Ostanina, CPRF, is a party office worker. Previously, she was a deputy of the State Duma and carries a certain weight within the party. At the same time, the voters do not know Ostanina; a lot of resources will not be spent on an active campaign. Ostanina opposes vaccination. Her rating will likely correspond to the number of people who always vote for CPRF.

Dmitriy Zakharov, Communists of Russia, is an active participant of the elections and a spoiler of candidates from CPRF. Previously, he was a municipal deputy in the Donskoy district from Just Russia. He is mainly engaged in criticizing CPRF.

Magomet Yandiev, Just Russia is a deputy of the Moscow City Duma. He was elected because of the support of Smart Voting. Before that, he was a little-known municipal deputy. After the election, he publicly declared that he supported Putin. Yandiev currently doesn’t have much support.

Yakov Yakubovich, Party of Growth, is the current head of the Tverskoy district from Yabloko. In 2018, he was supposed to participate in the elections for the Mayor of Moscow from Yabloko, but refused to participate despite winning the primaries. Later he actively collaborated with the authorities. Outside the Tverskoy District, he is almost unknown to voters.

Dmitriy Koshlakov-Krestovsky, LDPR, was an active participant in the elections to the Moscow City Duma in 2019 where he received 20% of the vote. He was a classmate of the son of Vladimir Zhirinovskiy. In 2019, he spent a lot of money on an active campaign. He will probably be active in these elections as well and supports Putin. The rating of LDPR will not allow him to get a high rating.

Maxim Shevchenko, CPRF, is a well-known journalist and deputy of the Vladimir Oblast. In 2018, in the presidential elections, he was a confidant of Grudinin. He runs a video blog, and at the moment he is one of the leaders of RPSS. Shevchenko has a chance to gain a lot of votes with an active campaign but will likely not have a chance to win.

Ketevan Kharaidze, Green Alternative, is a municipal deputy of the Tverskoy district. She became famous after she was accused of fraud by the authorities soon after she was nominated for election. This increased her recognition, though in general, Kharaidze’s rating is insignificant.

Andrey Shirokov, Party of Pensioners, is a functionary of his political organization. He actively worked in government agencies but has no experience of winning elections. He is unknown to voters.

Tatiana Vinnitskaya, New People, has never been involved in social and political activities. She is unknown, but at the moment her headquarters is campaigning hard on social media.

Anatoliy Yushin, Civic Platform, is a municipal deputy of the Presnenskiy district. Outside of his district, most voters don’t know him.

Independent candidates Zukhra Balyaeva and Iosif Dzhagaev do not have the resources to collect signatures and will not be registered. Balyaeva is a member of United Russia and may have been considered as a reserve candidate.

Prediction: the main struggle will unfold between Leonov and Mitrokhin. The result will depend on administrative support, candidates’ activity levels, and Smart Voting.

Electoral District 210 – Chertanovskiy

NamePartyDate of birthJob title, field, or organizationPlace of birthLocation
Barmenkov Evgeniy ValerievichThe Greens26.05.1989SibtelTulaMoscow
Batashev Anatoliy GennadievichGreen Alternative  18.01.1976Information agency, Big BalashikhaVladivostokMoscow
Butkeev Vladimir AnatolievichJust Russia22.03.1954RetiredKrasnodarskiy krayMoscow
Korshunkov Vladislav SergeevichLDPR8.12.1999Western administrative division in MoscowUkraineMoscow
Krapukhin Alexey IgorevichYabloko20.03.1987APRAMoscowMoscow
Nachevskiy Mikhail VladimirovichNew People2.07.1993Plekhanov Russian University of EconomicsMoscowMoscow
Romanenko Roman YurievichUnited Russia9.08.1971State Duma deputyMoscow OblastMoscow
Smitienko Stepan BorisovichCivic Platform30.10.1984PromsvyzbankMoscowMoscow
Tarantsov Mikhail AlexandrovichCPRF13.07.1962Moscow City DumaVolgogradMoscow
Taraschanskiy Leonid AsirovichCommunists of Russia3.12.1959UnemployedMoscowMoscow
Udalov Dmitriy AlexeyevichROS29.12.1980Military serviceStavropolMoscow
Yuneman Roman AlexandrovichIndependent03.04.1995Housing AlternativeGermanyMoscow
Yaseneva Yulia KonstantinovnaParty of Growth27.12.1990Stroganov Moscow State Academy of Arts and IndustryMoscowMoscow
Yatsevskiy Artemiy AndreevichRPSS21.04.1997Logistics and engineering in construction sectorMoscowMoscow

Districts: Severnoe Butovo, Yuzhnoe Butovo, Yasenevo, Chertanovo Tsentralnoe, Chertanovo Yuzhnoe

Roman Romenko, United Russia, is a famous cosmonaut and current State Duma deputy. He promotes military-patriotic education. Until 2011, he did not participate in social and political life. Romenko is one of the least recognizable candidates from United Russia: according to Gosdumetr, 27% of the district voters know him, 49% of whom are ready to support him. The party allocates a lot of money to support him.

Independent candidate Roman Yuneman managed to collect enough signatures for registration,[13] though there is a possibility he will not be registered. The result of registration depends on how dangerous a candidate is for the authorities. Yuneman is running an active campaign with a big budget. He has the support of many activists and has nationalist views, which can alienate part of the opposition. Support from Smart Voting is possible, but earlier in the elections to the Moscow City Duma, he did not receive it when preference was given to the communist candidate. 16% of voters know Yuneman according to Gosdumetr, and 62% of them will vote for him.

Mikhail Tarantsov, CPRF, is another contender for support from Smart Voting. Previously, he was a deputy of the Volgograd oblast Duma. At the moment he is the head of the district office of the Communist Party in Severnoe Medvedkovo. He is quite active and has supporters, but most of them live in the north of Moscow and outside of the district where he is running for deputy. Tarantsov’s recognition is almost the same as that of Yuneman — 15%, 77% of whom are ready to support him (the highest percentage in Moscow). In this regard, at the start of the election campaign, Tarantsov looks like a more probable candidate for Smart Voting than Yuneman.

Leonid Taraschanskiy, Communists of Russia, is Tarantsov’s spoiler candidate. Taraschanskiy has been matched with a candidate with a similar surname in order to confuse voters. He took part in the elections to municipal deputies in Yuzhnoe Butovo and lost outright. Taraschanskiy, according to Gosdumetr, is known by 4% of voters, 62% of whom  are ready to support him, probably because most of the respondents confuse him with Tarantsov.

Alexey Krapukhin, Yabloko, works for Rusfond and is engaged in charity work. He can count on the votes of the liberal opposition, but he has no individual recognition. According to Gosdumetr, only 4% of voters know him, 28% of whom support him.

Vladimir Butkeev, Just Russia, is a former State Duma deputy and an experienced politician. For the last 15 years, he has not distinguished himself in any way. 8% of voters know him, and 43% of them are ready to support.

Vladislav Korshunkov, LDPR, is a little-known, 22-year-old candidate. He has made populist statements and has not participated in earlier elections. He is one of the youth leaders of the party but  is not ready to conduct an active campaign. Voters are unfamiliar with him: 4% know about him, and 27% of them are ready to vote for him.

Yevgeniy Barmenkov, The Greens, is known among activists in relation to the protection of Bitsevskiy Forest. He is familiar to representatives of civil society but does not have the resources to campaign actively. 4% of voters know him, and 30% of them are ready to support him.

Artemiy Yatsevsky, RPSS, is a formal candidate. He is unknown and is depicted with a cigar in campaign materials. Less than 1% of voters know him.

Anatoliy Batashev, Green Alternative, is an environmental activist in Moscow Oblast. For some time, he worked as adviser to the head of the city of Balashikha. He is not expected to be gain a significant percentage of the vote. According to Gosdumetr, 4% of voters are familiar with him, 38% of whom will vote for him.

Mikhail Nachevskiy, New People, is a new candidate. He studies digital economy. He is actively campaigning on social media, however, he has almost no rating. According to Gosdumetr, Nachevsky is known to 1% of voters, 63% of which will vote for him.

Yulia Yaseneva, Party of Growth, is a teacher at the Academy of Arts and Industry. She is an unknown candidate: 4% of voters know her, 57% of whom are ready to vote for her.

Stepan Smitienko, Civil Platform, is an economist and employee of Promsvyazbank. He has not been noticed in social and political activities, although according to his official biography, he was previously an assistant to a deputy of the State Duma. 2% of voters know him, 33% of whom  will vote for him.

Dmitriy Udalov, ROS, is a serviceman. He has nine higher education degrees, which should attract the attention of voters on the official poster. He is inactive and has almost no campaign. There is no data on his recognition.

Prediction: if Yuneman is registered, a serious struggle for the support of Smart Voting will unfold between him and Taraschanskiy. Because Romanenko at this stage does not have a high level of recognition, the opposition has a chance to win. Romanenko, in any case, remains the main contender for the deputy mandate.

[1] Smart Voting. https://votesmart.appspot.com/ (accessed August 19, 2021).

[2] WCIOM. “The Ratings of Political Parties.”  https://wciom.ru/ratings/reiting-politicheskikh-partii/ (accessed August 19, 2021).

[3] Yavlinsky interview. https://www.dw.com/ru/grigorij-javlinskij-kritichno-o-navalnom-putine-i-vyborah-v-rossii/av-58317732 (accessed August 19, 2021).

[4] Information from https://cikrf.ru/ (accessed August 19, 2021).

[5]Ilya Graschenkov. “Has Navalny divided CPRF?“ https://echo.msk.ru/blog/delober/2779230-echo/ (accessed August 19, 2021).

[6] “Party of Growth has introduced Dmitriy Gudkov ally as a State Duma candidate.” https://asafov.ru/3379 (accessed August 19, 2021).

[7] Gosdumetr results: https://www.facebook.com/miloserdov.case (accessed August 19, 2021).

[8] “For Lobanov!” https://chronicles.igmsu.org/igmsu/lobanov/ (accessed August 19, 2021).

[9] Khovanskaya Galina Petrovna. https://whoiswho.dp.ru/cart/person/591702 (accessed August 19, 2021).

[10] “Vasserman: ‘People stopped believing the negative image of Stalin.’” https://sputnik.by/20190417/Vasserman-v-negativnyy-obraz-Stalina-sozdannyy-Khruschevym-perestali-verit-1040830310.html (accessed August 19, 2021).

[11] Leonov interview. https://meduza.io/feature/2021/06/10/podderzhivayu-li-ya-vlast-navernoe-net (accessed August 19, 2021).

[12] “United Russia stays without a candidate on one of the hardest districts in Moscow.” https://www.rbc.ru/politics/09/07/2021/60e700cf9a794705c266a768 (accessed August 19, 2021).

[13] “Voters have signed twice.” https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4928938#id2092856 (accessed August 19, 2021).

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